CERF Blog

The January 4 Federal Reserve Chairs Joint Interview panel at the largest and most prestigious economics conference in the country was a standing room only affair with a massive media presence.  I got there fifteen minutes early and almost did not get a seat.  New York Times senior economics correspondent Neil Irwin provided an early… Read more

I’ve argued for some time that services for the wealthy will be a major source of Coastal California jobs in coming years.  As people become more wealthy, they increase their specialization.  That is, wealthy people specialize in consumption and whatever it is that brings them their wealth.  That may mean specializing in consumption and in… Read more

It is.  Corporate welfare sustains inefficient old firms while impeding innovative new firms.  In this Forbes piece, George Leef discusses the use of tax waivers or direct subsidies to attract firms to a city or state.  As he points out politicians of all stripes do this: One of the great bipartisan follies of American politics is the idea… Read more

I have suggested that people would be better off if they massively increased their savings rates.  The aggregate Personal Savings Rate (PSR) is defined as the difference between disposable (after-tax) income and consumption spending.  It is reported each month by the Department of Commerce and has recently been running around 4%, compared to a 50-year… Read more

Last week the Federal Reserve released the Flow of Funds (FOF) report for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.  The report showed that household sector net worth increased by $1.2 trillion during the quarter to $58.5 trillion.  The financial crisis and subsequent recession has been marked by an enormous decline in household net worth, due… Read more

The Federal Reserve released its 2010 quarter 4 Flow of Funds Accounts today. The 125-page press release and the related database includes a huge volume of data on all things financial for the United States. I will focus my comments on debt levels and on the wealth of the household sector. Quarter 4 debt of… Read more

The Federal Reserve released its third quarter Flow of Funds report, which includes measures of debt accumulation and household sector wealth. This data is fundamental to the applied New Classical macroeconomist as wealth is believed to be a key driver of consumption. United States households continued to rebuild their balance sheets during the third quarter.… Read more

The Fed’s national wealth report for the second quarter is out today. For a New-Classical Macroeconomist, this is one of the most important data releases. Wealth is one of the most important theoretical drivers of consumption, and it is one of the drivers in our forecast model of the United States economy. National wealth, i.e.… Read more

The net wealth of United States households and non-profit institutions rose a bit in the first quarter of 2010, the Federal Reserve reported today. This data release shows that net wealth (assets minus liabilities) increased by about a trillion dollars, from $53.5 trillion to $54.5 trillion. From an asset-class point of view this gain was… Read more

The United States unemployment rate rose from 9.8 percent in September to 10.2 percent in October, exceeding our forecast and the consensus forecast. We appear to be in-between everyone else and reality again. The data, either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year, indicate ongoing job losses that are typical for a serious recession. We have said in the… Read more