CERF Blog
Here’s what the OECD has to say about the global economy: But the global economy can be characterised (sic) as only achieving a muddling-through “B-minus ” grade. Global growth in the first quarter of 2015 was weaker than in any quarter since the crisis. And although this softness is seen as transitory, productivity growth continues… Read more
I saw this Kaufman Foundation article that argues that, by reducing the downside risks, an aggressive government-provided safety net promoted entrepreneurship, jobs, and economic growth. If one follows the links, there is some empirical support for the argument. So, I figured that if I looked at data across countries, high-support countries would dominate new-business data. When… Read more
Since the dismal first-quarter GDP was revised down, we’ve heard all sorts of excuses. These include bad winter weather and problems in the seasonal adjustment process. The bad-winter excuse has been popular for several winters now. Of course, as I’ve said before, strong economies absorb bad winters with minimal impact on output, GDP. Now, we hear… Read more
This analysis suggest that low oil prices will likely persist. It seems that U.S. firms are more competitive than previously thought: But U.S. firms haven’t assumed that role as readily as the Saudis would have hoped. Rather, they’ve been hard at work innovating their way to profitability even at $65 per barrel. True, shale growth… Read more
It’s generally agreed that excessively lax lending standards were major contributors to the financial crisis that precipitated the Great Recession. So, Washington wants to do it again, only more. Here’s part of what Investors.com has to say: In a just-released federal report, the administration portrays these “credit invisibles” as victims of a traditional credit-scoring system.… Read more
It is. Corporate welfare sustains inefficient old firms while impeding innovative new firms. In this Forbes piece, George Leef discusses the use of tax waivers or direct subsidies to attract firms to a city or state. As he points out politicians of all stripes do this: One of the great bipartisan follies of American politics is the idea… Read more
Two new reports came out today indicating that the U.S. economy is weaker and more fragile than we thought. Productivity dropped for the second consecutive quarter, and hiring slowed. It appears that a weak global economy and the United States increasingly onerous regulatory environment is more than offsetting and stimulus from lower oil prices.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of the fourth quarter 2013 Gross Domestic Product today. The estimate indicates that the economy grew 3.2 percent in 4th quarter. This followed a 4.1 percent growth rate in quarter 3 which followed a 2.5 percent growth rate in quarter 2. The growth in… Read more
This morning I ran across this piece on five people who have left the labor force. It a why-and-how-are-they-dealing-with-it type of thing. What struck me was that four of the five were either back in college or planning on going back to college, some for advanced degrees. Improving human capital is a reasonable response to long-term unemployment,… Read more
Forecasting is always difficult. It is even more difficult when the data keep changing. This year, we’ve been plagued by very large adjustments to GDP data. Most have been downward adjustments, but a few have been upward adjustments. Productivity has been the source of most of the changes. Jobs data get revised too, but we… Read more
