CERF Blog

Tyler Cowen has a piece in the New York Times today.  He’s arguing that fundamental weaknesses and dysfunctions may be causing permanent changes, a reset: The debate over the economy these days isn’t just about income inequality and what should or should not be done about it. Perhaps the most crucial issue is whether economies will… Read more

This morning I ran across this piece on five people who have left the labor force.  It a why-and-how-are-they-dealing-with-it type of thing.  What struck me was that four of the five were either back in college or planning on going back to college, some for advanced degrees. Improving human capital is a reasonable response to long-term unemployment,… Read more

Today’s jobs data release was below our forecast, and that is bad. It is even worse, when one considers the productivity data released earlier in the week. That report showed that productivity has fallen in each of the past three consecutive quarters. This is the most sustained decline since 1979. Productivity used to have a… Read more

We’ve seen more and more forecasters and analysts revising their forecast down. In fact, after being among the lowest for years, we’re now almost consensus. Remember, they came to us. Downward revisions to United States gross domestic product (GDP) have driven most of the revisions. For about two years, we had trouble with the original… Read more

The United States Employment Situation was released this morning and the glimmer of hope that I had been nurturing as the February, March, and April data came out has been weakened. While the May public sector jobs result was like I forecasted, the private sector jobs result was much weaker. Non-farm jobs increased 54 thousand… Read more

We have some economic news out today.  453,000 filed initial unemployment claims, and the second quarter GDP estimate is 1.7 percent growth.  The news people are practically ecstatic over this, proclaiming it’s good news.  The markets seem to agree.  Each of the stock markets are up right now. True enough, the unemployment claims are down… Read more

DJ is one of my dearest friends.  He was one of the first people to befriend me when I moved to a new city as a high-school junior.  He was there for the debriefs after high-school dates, and I was there for his.  He was there for an awful lot of firsts, none of which… Read more

Economists agree on relatively few topics when it comes to macroeconomics, but we do have some topics that generate something approaching consensus.  One topic of general agreement among economists is immigration.  Most economist are convinced that immigration is good.  Of course, this is in sharp contrast with popular opinion.  So, we need to keep trying… Read more

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Larry Summers are having a heated exchange over the impacts of unemployment insurance on jobs, and they are both being stupid. The WSJ claims that extending unemployment insurance is causing unemployment, and that their opinion is consistent with Summers’ past statements. Unemployment insurance can exacerbate unemployment in times of… Read more

Many economists declared the recession over after the third-quarter GDP release. We at CERF disagreed and pointed out that almost every long recession has had at least one quarter of positive growth during the recession. We also pointed out that many of the reasons for the relatively strong third quarter were temporary. We just didn’t… Read more