CERF Blog

This is a short note about our forecast of the May labor market. We are still bearish on the overall economy with the usual suspects: banking, real estate, and the labor market weighing against vigorous growth. From the April results, the broad measure of unemployment (including under-employed & marginally attached to labor force) was still… Read more

This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market.  The data comes out this Friday, May 6. Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased by about 200 thousand, and we are tentatively confident that about 180 thousand can occur in April. This forecast reflects… Read more

The February United States jobs report came out this morning, and it is contains a glimmer of hope. This does not mean the recovery is strong yet. One month’s worth of data is nothing to base a trend on. There were 2 things of note that happened in February. Job gains occurred in the construction… Read more

At CNN’s request, California Lutheran University released its February jobs forecast today. The actual data will come out Friday. The weakness in jobs persists: the federal government’s net hiring is expected to be close to zero and state/local government’s net hiring is expected to be negative due to a lack of revenues, non-decreasing expenditures, and… Read more

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Employment Situation report for January today. The household survey data indicate a fall in the unemployment rate, however, this appears to be as much due to updated population controls as much as any other factor. As well, we have to wonder if declines in labor force indicate that… Read more

United States non-farm jobs fell by 95,000 jobs in September driven by a 159,000 loss of government jobs that was offset by a 64,000 gain in private sector payroll jobs. The government job losses resulted from Census cutbacks and continued local government sector declines. Non-farm job growth has been negative for four months now, i.e.… Read more

The June United States nonfarm job level declined by 125,000. The decrease reflected a 225,000 decrease in the number of temporary employees working on the 2010 Census. The government sector decrease was offset by a private–sector payroll employment increase of 83,000. The unemployment rate edged down from 9.7 to 9.5 percent. The unemployment rate drop… Read more

California’s April unemployment rate was unchanged from March at 12.6 percent. This was the result of roughly equivalent increases in civilian labor force and employment from March to April. California’s April jobs grew at 1.6 percent, annualized, from March. However, if we remove Agriculture and Government, this growth rate falls to zero percent. California’s April… Read more

Oregon April non-farm jobs increased 3,900 over March. The April labor market update was posted by the Oregon Employment Department on Tuesday. This is the largest month-on-month increase since October 2007. Using the 3,900 jobs to calculate an annualized growth rate yields 3.0 percent, see the chart below. The 3,900 jobs gained comprised of 2,800… Read more

Dan Hamilton and Kjersti Framnes The California March unemployment rate increased to 12.6 percent from 12.5 percent in February. Since August of 2009 the unemployment rate has climbed 60 basis points, and there has not been any interim month of recovery. The unemployment rate would likely be even greater if not for net domestic out-migration.… Read more