CERF Blog
Today’s data releases highlight the challenges facing those who claim we are in a recovery. The December retail sales volume, down 0.3 percent from November, was perhaps the most shocking number to the optimists out there. This was almost a full percentage point below “consensus expectations,” which were for 0.5 percent growth. So much for… Read more
This morning’s December employment situation report showed certain signs of improvement that do indicate a positive trend. However, the fourth quarter of 2009 ended down, consistent with our forecast. The November jobs number was revised to show a month-on-month gain of jobs. The December jobs number was down 0.8 percent from November and down three… Read more
Many economists declared the recession over after the third-quarter GDP release. We at CERF disagreed and pointed out that almost every long recession has had at least one quarter of positive growth during the recession. We also pointed out that many of the reasons for the relatively strong third quarter were temporary. We just didn’t… Read more
The United States employment situation improved substantially in November. The unemployment rate fell a bit and quarter-on-quarter job losses slowed dramatically, almost to zero. This welcome news has been greeted with rises in equities and a fall in Treasury bonds. I have attached four charts below. Are we out of the woods? No. Is this… Read more
I had to pause when I read George Melloan’s Wall Street Journal piece today. Seems he sees a conspiracy between Treasury and the Federal Reserve to fund the national deficit with bank funds to the detriment of business and economic growth. In Melloan’s world, the co-conspirators do this by regulation, giving banks little choice but… Read more
California’s jobs report, released Friday the 16th, showed that the California economy is still bumping along the bottom of a serious recession. The various indicators, for the month of September, show only slight improvements over August. There was a slight improvement in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 12.3 percent to 12.2 percent. There was… Read more
In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 United States year-on-year job growth rate from 0.3 to a fall of about four percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was one characterized by… Read more
The current economic downturn is a serious one, especially for coastal California counties. Los Angeles County also experienced a serious and prolonged recession in the early 1990s. The early 1990s United States economy experienced a cyclical economic downturn while Los Angeles County also experienced a major downsizing of its aerospace and defense industries. The contraction of… Read more
In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 California year-on-year job growth from a fall of about one percent to a fall of about five percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was… Read more
Two Los Angeles Times articles today highlight California’s problems. One article discusses the falloff of activity at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports (http://tiny.cc/eFHbx). The other discusses the expected closing of California’s last auto plant (http://tiny.cc/ini6Z). Some would argue that these events reflect the worldwide economic decline and have little to do with California.… Read more
