CERF Blog

I saw this Kaufman Foundation article that argues that, by reducing the downside risks, an aggressive government-provided safety net promoted entrepreneurship, jobs, and economic growth.  If one follows the links, there is some empirical support for the argument. So, I figured that if I looked at data across countries, high-support countries would dominate new-business data.  When… Read more

It’s generally agreed that excessively lax lending standards were major contributors to the financial crisis that precipitated the Great Recession.  So, Washington wants to do it again, only more.  Here’s part of what Investors.com has to say: In a just-released federal report, the administration portrays these “credit invisibles” as victims of a traditional credit-scoring system.… Read more

Tyler Cowen has a piece in the New York Times today.  He’s arguing that fundamental weaknesses and dysfunctions may be causing permanent changes, a reset: The debate over the economy these days isn’t just about income inequality and what should or should not be done about it. Perhaps the most crucial issue is whether economies will… Read more

Two new reports came out today indicating that the U.S. economy is weaker and more fragile than we thought. Productivity dropped for the second consecutive quarter, and hiring slowed. It appears that a weak global economy and the United States increasingly onerous regulatory environment is more than offsetting and stimulus from lower oil prices.

The year 1972 was a big one for me. I left the US Air Force, and I married the woman I still love. Once it dawned on me that I needed income to support my wife and our future family, I started looking about for what to do. I seriously considered working in one of… Read more

This is a comment on the national November Employment Situation report released last Friday, and I use numbers from the report to calculate when the United States might reach the Federal Reserve unemployment rate goal of 6.5 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 7.9 percent in October to 7.7 percent in November which might appear… Read more

The world’s horse population is estimated to not exceed 65 million, while the world’s population of people is estimated at 7.05 billion.  We have at least 108 people for every horse.  It wasn’t always thus.  In 1800, Europe’s estimated horse population was 14 million, while its people population was an estimated 150 million.  They had… Read more

The labor department released their monthly jobs report. Today’s release is a report on the employment situation in August. Payroll jobs rose by 96 thousand jobs, driven by private sector job growth of 103 thousand jobs. The private sector job growth was concentrated in services, particularly professional and business services, education and healthcare services, and… Read more

The BLS Employment Situation was released today, indicating a job increase that exceeded the expectations of the consensus forecast. This information is based on a survey of employers. The 163 thousand job increase over June contrasts with the Bloomberg median consensus of 100 thousand and our forecast of 80 thousand. It is the most rapid… Read more

The Labor Department’s Jobs report came out this morning at an 80,000 job increase for June, an 84,000 gain for the private sector and a 4,000 loss for the public sector. We had forecast a 60,000 increase overall and a 70,000 increase for the private sector. The Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2 percent, the… Read more