CERF Blog

This morning’s much anticipated fourth quarter GDP release provides a preliminary estimate of real GDP growth of 2.8 percent. To be fair, perhaps the anticipation is experienced mostly by forecasting economists and financial market watchers. I am always particularly interested in fourth quarter as it closes out the year and in this case I forecasted… Read more

The recent GDP release for 2010 quarter 4 got me to thinking about consumption and investment. Consumption growth was very strong, especially considering the still high level of mortgage and revolving credit debt in the United States economy. I show three charts below: real consumption, real business fixed investment, and consumption’s percent share of GDP.… Read more

Mankiw has a post on the administration’s proposed changes in the tax treatment of investment.  As usual, he is right on.  The proposed treatment amounts to a zero interest loan, at a time when interest rates are already remarkably close to zero: However, the impact will be relatively modest. Notice that expensing merely accelerates deductions.… Read more

The Gartner Group released a new outlook report for the global semiconductor industry yesterday, November 16th. There is a bit of optimism in this report! The group has raised their forecast for 2009 based on recent data. This is the second time the group has raised their forecast in less than three months. From their… Read more