CERF Blog

In a terrific book published last year,  Antti Ilmanen1 has investigated the drivers of investment returns from a number of angles including asset class (that is, equities, fixed income, commodities), investment strategy (value, growth, momentum, leverage, carry), and risk driver (exposure to economic growth, inflation, liquidity).  The basic idea is that you obtain strong investment… Read more

Goodhart’s Law (named after economist Charles Goodhart) says that once an observed empirical relationship begins to be relied upon, it will no longer work.   This law, or a variant, comes up in a lot of fields, but especially finance and economics.  Consider the problem of forecasting the rate of inflation.    Price stability is a major… Read more