CERF Blog
Mary Hanley and Dan Hamilton The January 25, 2011 DataQuick press release shows that both foreclosures and notices of defaults have fallen almost everywhere in California. Statewide foreclosures have fallen 21.9% from last quarter and more than 30% from the fourth quarter of 2009. The large drop in foreclosures may indicate lenders’ hesitancy to take… Read more
Dan Hamilton & Mary Hanley The January 27, 2010 DataQuick press release shows that California Notices of Default (NOD’s) fell from 111,689 in third quarter of 2009 to 84,568 in the fourth quarter of 2009. That is almost a 25 percent drop in NOD’s. NOD’s have been falling for three quarters now, which is a… Read more
Today’s data releases highlight the challenges facing those who claim we are in a recovery. The December retail sales volume, down 0.3 percent from November, was perhaps the most shocking number to the optimists out there. This was almost a full percentage point below “consensus expectations,” which were for 0.5 percent growth. So much for… Read more
The United States employment situation improved substantially in November. The unemployment rate fell a bit and quarter-on-quarter job losses slowed dramatically, almost to zero. This welcome news has been greeted with rises in equities and a fall in Treasury bonds. I have attached four charts below. Are we out of the woods? No. Is this… Read more
The United States unemployment rate rose from 9.8 percent in September to 10.2 percent in October, exceeding our forecast and the consensus forecast. We appear to be in-between everyone else and reality again. The data, either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year, indicate ongoing job losses that are typical for a serious recession. We have said in the… Read more
I was reviewing new data from DataQuick Information Systems. There were 111,689 California Notices of Default (NODs) during the third quarter. While this is down from 124,562 in the second quarter, it is still an enormous number, see the chart below. Foreclosures rose from 45,667 to 50,013. There is massive heterogeneity across the state with… Read more
United States third quarter foreclosure rates rose substantially, 23 percent higher than last year, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Almost a million homes received a default, auction notice, or were repossessed by banks in 2009 quarter 3. About one in every 136 U.S. households received a filing, the highest since January 2005. Analysis by the Amherst… Read more
Mark Zandi declared “the recession is over” on Tuesday September 1, 2009. All of the economists at CERF would like this to be true. However, we suspect that this is not true. Mark’s declaration was based in part on the ISM manufacturing activity index data release. The economy has benefited from expenditures on vehicles in… Read more
