CERF Blog

It’s generally agreed that excessively lax lending standards were major contributors to the financial crisis that precipitated the Great Recession.  So, Washington wants to do it again, only more.  Here’s part of what Investors.com has to say: In a just-released federal report, the administration portrays these “credit invisibles” as victims of a traditional credit-scoring system.… Read more

One of the lessons that many people have taken from the financial crisis is that there was too much debt and leverage and too little equity capital.  Capital serves as a buffer against loss.  If this buffer is inadequate, the probability of financial failure is high.  During an economic boom, borrowers are eager to take… Read more

Condensed minutes of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings are released three weeks after each meeting.  Detailed transcripts for the meetings in a given calendar year are released five years after the end of that calendar year.  Thus, last month the detailed transcripts for the 2006 FOMC meetings were released.  These transcripts have received a… Read more

In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 United States year-on-year job growth rate from 0.3 to a fall of about four percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was one characterized by… Read more