CERF Blog

There has been a fair amount of chatter lately saying that the Feds are keeping banks from lending. The story goes something like this: Banks can borrow from the Fed at rates near zero. Then, they can purchase Treasuries for about three percent. Voila, banks have a three percent risk-free return, and no incentive to… Read more

Many economists declared the recession over after the third-quarter GDP release. We at CERF disagreed and pointed out that almost every long recession has had at least one quarter of positive growth during the recession. We also pointed out that many of the reasons for the relatively strong third quarter were temporary. We just didn’t… Read more

Joel Kotkin sent me this link to a Union Tribune editorial. As Arnold would say, it’s fantastic. When asked about the possibility of suspending AB 32 during bad economic times, Arnold asserts that AB 32 is helping economic Growth. Here’s the money quote: “Your question is premised on an unproven assertion that implementation of AB… Read more

I had to pause when I read George Melloan’s Wall Street Journal piece today. Seems he sees a conspiracy between Treasury and the Federal Reserve to fund the national deficit with bank funds to the detriment of business and economic growth. In Melloan’s world, the co-conspirators do this by regulation, giving banks little choice but… Read more

After the kids went to bed last night, I checked the web to see if there was anything new. The Wall Street Journal posts the next day’s op-eds the evening before print publication. So, I checked those out. I started reading a piece by Judy Shelton provocatively titled The Fed’s Woody Allen Policy. Hey, I… Read more

I ran across the “Distress Index” today. It’s put out by the Foundation for Economic Education, an outfit I’ve never heard of before. They even have a nice chart showing how their index has performed over time. I’m not a fan of indices. (Indices is preferred over indexes. Indexes proper usage is as a verb,… Read more

Reuters has a release of new housing data. Seems sales fell in September and Augusts’ numbers were revised down. I’m amazed at the writer’s confidence that we are in “widening recovery.” The money quotes are “The housing data represented a road bump in a recovery that otherwise appears to be widening.” & “With some lingering… Read more

Joel Kotkin forwarded this article in the Oregon Environmental News.  Seems that baby boomers will retire to rural communities in big numbers, for maybe 15 years. This is likely to be particularly important in Central Oregon, and it is a mixed blessing. The baby boomer’s impact on Central Oregon’s economy will persist long after the… Read more

Dan started this, but he has some minor surgery today. Kirk and Bill finished it: CERF released its first United States and California forecast last week. The United States and California forecasts are pessimistic relative to consensus. Why? In part, it is because so many forecasters seem to be using a model with a high… Read more

Today’s Wall Street Journal has a piece by John Cogan, John Taylor and Volker Wieland. Cogan and Taylor are famous and respected economists. Volker is younger. He was Taylor’s student and at the Fed when I was there. I found him careful, thoughtful, and smart. Their piece is titled “The Stimulus Didn’t Work.” They provide… Read more