CERF Blog
Previously published March 22, 2011 California remains mired in something like a zombie state, not quite dead, but certainly not vigorous, moving but with no clear direction. Perhaps, jobs and migration data best show California listless nature. Jobs have been increasing in almost every sector, but that job growth has been anemic. We saw only… Read more
We have some economic news out today. 453,000 filed initial unemployment claims, and the second quarter GDP estimate is 1.7 percent growth. The news people are practically ecstatic over this, proclaiming it’s good news. The markets seem to agree. Each of the stock markets are up right now. True enough, the unemployment claims are down… Read more
The National Venture Capital Association issued a couple of reports recently. One is on venture capital fund raising. The other is a report on a survey of venture capital professionals. Each of them make for ugly reading, if you would like to see a robust recovery and dynamic economy. Here are a few key findings:… Read more
Last year, Oregon citizens approved large increases on business and consumer income. Now their problem is worse. The Oregon Business Report has a piece today by Patrick Emerson: The Office of Economic Analysis blog has a nice picture that does a good job describing the torpedo the good ship Oregon took to her hull. This… Read more
Vince Reinhart released a fascinating piece on February 25, 2010. I highly recommend reading it in its entirety. Here, I’d like to talk about two paragraphs: How will the Fed raise the short-term market interest rate? The old-fashioned way of tightening monetary policy is to shrink the amount of reserves outstanding by selling assets. Over… Read more
We are thrilled to see the first estimate of the 4th quarter GDP come in way above our forecast, but we wish we had forecast the change. We do expect to see the initial estimate revised down in subsequent releases. Why did the GDP estimate come in so strong? Mostly, it was investment. Fourth quarter… Read more
