CERF Blog

The recent GDP release for 2010 quarter 4 got me to thinking about consumption and investment. Consumption growth was very strong, especially considering the still high level of mortgage and revolving credit debt in the United States economy. I show three charts below: real consumption, real business fixed investment, and consumption’s percent share of GDP.… Read more

Today’s data releases highlight the challenges facing those who claim we are in a recovery. The December retail sales volume, down 0.3 percent from November, was perhaps the most shocking number to the optimists out there. This was almost a full percentage point below “consensus expectations,” which were for 0.5 percent growth. So much for… Read more

Recent United States economic indicators have provided mixed signals. Measures of GDP, industrial production, factory orders, and trade have been encouraging while homeownership rates, foreclosure rates, and bank charge-offs still remain discouragingly high. A manufacturing rebound would be a welcome boost to the still-ailing United States and World economies. However, the ongoing weaknesses in housing… Read more

The United States government reported that real Gross Domestic Product increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Improvements in Consumer Durables consumption, up 22.3 percent, and Residential Fixed Investment, up 23.4 percent, were the key components driving the increase. Both of these gains were in turn driven by… Read more