CERF Blog
I was reviewing new data from DataQuick Information Systems. There were 111,689 California Notices of Default (NODs) during the third quarter. While this is down from 124,562 in the second quarter, it is still an enormous number, see the chart below. Foreclosures rose from 45,667 to 50,013. There is massive heterogeneity across the state with… Read more
California’s jobs report, released Friday the 16th, showed that the California economy is still bumping along the bottom of a serious recession. The various indicators, for the month of September, show only slight improvements over August. There was a slight improvement in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 12.3 percent to 12.2 percent. There was… Read more
Tim Herdt has a piece today on the politics of legalizing marijuana: “Forget Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom. It says here that the most interesting political issue in California next June might not be the Republican and Democratic nominations for governor, but possibly a ballot proposition with the following title:… Read more
Dan started this, but he has some minor surgery today. Kirk and Bill finished it: CERF released its first United States and California forecast last week. The United States and California forecasts are pessimistic relative to consensus. Why? In part, it is because so many forecasters seem to be using a model with a high… Read more
In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 California year-on-year job growth from a fall of about one percent to a fall of about five percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was… Read more
The Pacific Research Institute released a new study yesterday. The report, titled “Assessing the State of the Golden State,” analyzes indicators for income, labor, migration, and entrepreneurship and compares California to every other state. Here’s a link to the report: http://tiny.cc/huFh5 How does California rank in this study? The short answer is poor. By these… Read more
