CERF Blog
California has now had three consecutive months of job gains, and the State’s unemployment rate has been declining, albeit slowly. That’s an improvement, but it’s not time to break out the bubbly. For one thing, those job gains have been pretty darn small, and they haven’t been enough to drive down the unemployment rate. Outmigration… Read more
The October 29, 2009 issue of Time Magazine had an article titled “Why California is America’s Future.” I sure hope not. California is fast becoming a post-industrial hell for almost everyone except the gentry class, their best servants and the public sector. We only need a few numbers to demonstrate that California is clearly on… Read more
Previously published March 22, 2011 in the California Economic Forecast I mentioned in the United States Highlights essay that the fourth quarter consumption growth rate of 4.1 percent, the strongest in five years, was a surprise given weak economic fundamentals. I also discussed the evidence of significant heterogeneity across U.S. regions. I would argue that… Read more
Previously published March 22, 2011 It appears that California residential real estate is in the second dip of a double-dip decline. California home prices, and sales, crashed at the beginning of the recession. Then, last year they picked up in the first half of the year, a result of temporary government programs and optimism unsupported… Read more
Previously published March 22, 2011 California remains mired in something like a zombie state, not quite dead, but certainly not vigorous, moving but with no clear direction. Perhaps, jobs and migration data best show California listless nature. Jobs have been increasing in almost every sector, but that job growth has been anemic. We saw only… Read more
Mary Hanley and Dan Hamilton The January 25, 2011 DataQuick press release shows that both foreclosures and notices of defaults have fallen almost everywhere in California. Statewide foreclosures have fallen 21.9% from last quarter and more than 30% from the fourth quarter of 2009. The large drop in foreclosures may indicate lenders’ hesitancy to take… Read more
A lot of state governments are in trouble, afflicted as they are with high expenses and weak revenues. They need to be thinking clearly if they are to have any hope of solving their problems. Unfortunately, lots of fuzzy thinking occurs when it comes to taxes. The biggest problem is that many people think that… Read more
California has pending legislation, AB 2529, to require an economic impact analysis of proposed new regulation. Its opponents correctly point out that AB 2529 will delay and increase the cost of new regulation. There will be lawsuits and arguments over the proper methodology and over assumptions. It is not easy to complete a thorough and… Read more
California’s unemployment rate edged up from 12.3 in July to 12.4 percent in August, the Employment Development Department reported today. This was driven more by changes in jobs, (losses), rather than changes in labor force. California’s unemployment rate is third highest in the nation behind Michigan and Nevada. California’s month-on-month non-farm job growth rate worsened… Read more
Yesterday, the Los Angeles Times had an article on the decline of illegal immigration into the United States. It is unpopular to say this, but this is bad. There is lots of evidence that immigrants, including illegal immigrants, are a net positive to the economy. Here is a recent and typical research piece from the… Read more
